Nontraditional Risk Factors May Not Help Assess Coronary Heart Disease Risk
Use of nontraditional risk factors may not help assess coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in asymptomatic men and women with no CHD history, according to a new US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommendation statement and accompanying evidence review reported in the October 6 issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The USPSTF found that there was not sufficient evidence to evaluate the balance of benefits vs harms of using any of the 9 nontraditional risk factors to screen asymptomatic men and women with no history of CHD to prevent CHD events.
The 9 nontraditional risk factors evaluated were high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), ankle-brachial index (ABI), leukocyte count, fasting blood glucose level, periodontal disease, carotid intima-media thickness, coronary artery calcification score on electron-beam computed tomography, homocysteine level, and lipoprotein(a) level.
"...CHD is the most common cause of mortality of adults in the United States," write Ned Calonge, MD, MPH, and USPSTF colleagues from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality in Rockville, Maryland. "Treatment to prevent CHD events by modifying risk factors is currently based on the Framingham risk model, which sorts individuals into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups. If the risk model could be improved, treatment might be better targeted, thereby maximizing screening benefits and minimizing harms."
The statement authors note that the best opportunity for nontraditional, or novel, risk factors to improve risk classification would be to change those in the intermediate-risk Framingham group to either a low-risk or high-risk group. In the United States, approximately 23 million people with no history of cardiovascular disease are classified by the Framingham score as intermediate risk, but it is unknown how many of these individuals are actually at high risk and could benefit from more aggressive therapy aiming at risk-factor modification reduction.
The Framingham score, which classifies people based on their projected 10-year risk for a major coronary event, uses 7 traditional risk factors for CHD: age, sex, total blood cholesterol level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and use of antihypertensive medication.
Systematic Reviews Performed
The investigators performed systematic reviews of the literature since 1996 on the 9 proposed nontraditional markers of CHD risk. They used a hierarchic approach in hopes of identifying which of these factors could practically and definitively recategorize individuals determined by their Framingham score to be intermediate risk. If these individuals could be reclassified, using any of the novel risk factors, as either high risk or low risk, outcomes might be improved by aggressively targeting risk factors in those individuals newly classified as high risk.
For 7 of the 9 nontraditional risk factors, evidence was insufficient to estimate the percentage of Framingham intermediate-risk individuals who would be reclassified as low risk or high risk using these factors.
Based on hs-CRP screening, approximately 11% of men classified as Framingham intermediate risk would be reclassified as high risk, and approximately 12% would be reclassified as low risk. Small study samples precluded determination of the effect of hs-CRP screening on risk classification in women.
Based on ABI screening, approximately 10% of women classified as Framingham intermediate risk would be reclassified as high risk, but data are insufficient regarding the effect of ABI screening on risk classification in men. For either hs-CRP or ABI screening, however, there are no data to evaluate whether reclassified individuals would benefit from additional treatments targeting these risk factors.
There was limited evidence to assess the harms of screening with novel risk factors. However, potential harms could include risks inherent in lifelong use of medications without proven benefit and psychological and other harms from being misclassified in a higher-risk category.
"The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of using the nontraditional risk factors studied to screen asymptomatic men and women with no history of CHD to prevent CHD events (I statement)," the recommendation statement authors write. "Clinicians should use the Framingham model to assess CHD risk and to guide risk-based therapy until further evidence is obtained....Because adding nontraditional risk factors to CHD assessment requires additional patient and clinical staff time and effort, routinely screening with nontraditional risk factors could result in lost opportunities for provision of other important health services of proven benefit."
Accompanying Evidence Review
The accompanying evidence review was a summary of 9 systematic reviews of novel risk factors by Mark Helfand, MD, from the Oregon Evidence-Based Practice Center, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, and Oregon Health & Science University in Portland, and colleagues.
"Traditional risk factors do not explain all of the risk for incident...CHD events," the review authors write. "Various new or emerging risk factors have the potential to improve global risk assessment for CHD."
The reviewers searched MEDLINE for relevant English-language articles describing cohort studies of novel CHD risk factors published from 1966 to September 2008. Inclusion criteria were no baseline cardiovascular disease in the participants and adjustment for at least 6 Framingham risk factors.
USPSTF criteria were used to assess methodologic quality of individual studies. For each nontraditional risk factor, overall quality of evidence was examined with a modified version of the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation framework. The potential clinical usefulness of each factor was determined by use of a set of criteria highlighting the importance of the impact of that factor on restratifying individuals at intermediate risk based on the Framingham score.
There was considerable variability across the risk factors in aggregate quality, availability and validity of the evidence, consistency of the results, and applicability to individuals in the general population classified by the Framingham score as intermediate risk. For most of the novel risk factors, no studies have examined their usefulness for reclassifying individuals at intermediate risk.
Limitations of the review included lack of access to original data, precluding arriving at definite conclusions concerning differences in risk prediction among racial and ethnic groups. Furthermore, the review was not able to highlight within-cohort comparisons of multiple novel risk factors.
"...CRP was the best candidate for use in screening and the most rigorously studied, but evidence that changes in CRP level lead to primary prevention of CHD events is inconclusive," the review authors write. "The current evidence does not support the routine use of any of the 9 risk factors for further risk stratification of intermediate-risk persons."
Conclusions of the USPSTF are not to be construed as official positions of the US government or the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The statement and review authors have disclosed no relevant financial relationships.
Ann Intern Med. 2009;151:474-482, 496-507. Abstract
Additional Resources
More information on heart disease and risk factors is available on the Framingham Heart Study Web site. The risk assessment tool based on the Framingham data to estimate one's 10-year risk of a myocardial infarction or coronary death is also accessible.
Study Highlights
Researchers focused on the usefulness of nontraditional variables in further quantifying the CHD risk for intermediate-risk patients. These patients may benefit most by reclassification into low-risk (no treatment of CHD risk) or high-risk (aggressive treatment) groups.
Nontraditional risk factors assessed included hs-CRP, ABI, leukocyte count, fasting blood glucose level, periodontal disease, carotid intima-media thickness, coronary artery calcification score on electron beam computed tomography, homocysteine level, and lipoprotein(a) level.
The collective research into these nontraditional risk factors was mainly limited by a failure to assess the incremental value of nontraditional risk factors vs more traditional risk assessments.
Furthermore, there was no evidence that risk stratification with any nontraditional risk factor was associated with reduced rates of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular mortality.
Several factors, including periodontal disease, coronary artery calcium scans, and increased carotid intima-media thickness, were independent predictors of CHD. However, these variables were not applied specifically to those patients at intermediate risk for CHD.
Although elevated levels of lipoprotein(a) and homocysteine were predictive of a higher risk for CHD events, no research has examined their predictive value beyond traditional risk calculators.
hs-CRP would help to reclassify approximately 11% of men with an intermediate CHD risk into the high-risk category, and 12% of these men would be reclassified as low risk with hs-CRP testing. However, it is unknown whether treating patients reclassified as high risk based on hs-CRP testing is effective in reducing the risk for CHD events. hs-CRP testing is less well researched among women.
ABI may move 10% of women from the intermediate-risk group for CHD into the high-risk group. However, any similar efficacy of ABI testing among men remains unclear.
No studies have directly measured the potential harms associated with CHD risk testing by use of nontraditional variables. However, long-term preventive treatments with statins and aspirin may be increased if more patients are considered moderate risk or high risk for CHD.
Overall, the USPSTF concludes that there is insufficient evidence to assess the balance of benefits and harms of using nontraditional risk factors to screen for CHD risk among asymptomatic adults.
Clinical Implications
The algorithm by ATP III of the National Cholesterol Education Program calculates patients' 10-year risk for a CHD event using their age, sex, systolic blood pressure, serum total cholesterol level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and smoking status.
There is insufficient evidence to recommend the routine use of nontraditional variables to screen for CHD risk among asymptomatic adults, according to the USPSTF.